Who Holds the Risk in AI Infrastructure?

A mosaic
A mosaic
The S2G Podcast • Ep. 67
Who Holds the Risk in AI Infrastructure?
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Capital is flowing into AI infrastructure at an unprecedented scale, but investors are not sharing risk equally. In both chips and data center financing, lenders generally favor amortizing structures that fully repay debt during the initial lease term. 

As a result, equity investors bear the residual value risk of the underlying assets, including both facilities and hardware. This dynamic reflects a core element of S2G’s Age of Adaptation thesis: the evolving cost and pricing of capital.

Karen Fang, Global Head of Infrastructure & Sustainable Finance and Co-Head of the Global Capital Solutions at Bank of America, has spent 28 years in finance. She says nothing compares to the size of the deals she’s working on now, and the cost of financing these projects has risen over the last year due to higher rates and wider spreads. 

In this episode, she and Sanjeev Krishnan discuss how different risk horizons can shape the way debt and equity investors price data center projects, what happens when chipmakers no longer guarantee the residual value of their chips, and why comparisons to the dot-com crash miss the mark. She also explains why solar and batteries still make up most of the new power capacity added to the U.S. grid. And she walks through a $16 billion data center campus in Michigan, financed through a structure her team designed, that uses existing grid capacity alongside battery storage, rather than relying on new power generation.

If you invest in or finance real assets, this episode offers a useful look at how someone close to these deals thinks about risks the market is still learning to price.

View the Transcript.

Key Takeaways

  • Karen points out that AI is constrained by real-world availability of power, equipment, skilled labor and permitting, factors that naturally limit how quickly announced projects can become operational. With only 15 to 20 gigawatts being built in the U.S. against hundreds announced, she argues we’re more likely underbuilding than overbuilding currently.

  • As Karen explains it, higher financing costs and changing project economics are putting greater emphasis on lease structures, inflation protection and the durability of longer-term returns. Sanjeev adds that much of today’s inflation stems from shortages of equipment and skilled labor, which interest rates can’t fix.

  • According to Karen, lenders can focus heavily on an anchor tenant’s credit and repayment during the lease term, while equity investors must consider what the underlying asset will be worth much further into the future.

  • Much of today’s chip financing relies on chipmakers backing the future value of their chips, and Karen notes that support can’t last forever without a resale market like the ones for aircraft and cars.

  • AI infrastructure development increasingly depends on where power can be accessed quickly and reliably. In Karen’s view, solar and storage make up about 90% of new U.S. capacity added in recent years because they’re faster and cheaper to build. Sanjeev argues that social license is becoming a real differentiator, and that concern about data centers now crosses party lines.

Karen Fang: Two years ago, if you did infrastructure project finance, and you did a two-billion-dollar deal, it’s a big deal. Now a $20 billion deal is a medium-sized transaction. 

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